While I have no expertise on the Arab world, allow me to at least comment on the events that have occurred in Egypt and resulted in the ouster of the 30-year dictator of the world’s most populous Arab nation. Here are some thoughts and questions:
1. What is so amazing about these events is that they dispel, all at once, so many popular myths about the Arab world: that grievances against Israel and the U.S. are the paramount issues among the Arab people; that Arab societies are incapable of peaceful democratic transition; that democracy in the Arab world can only come about through violent overthrow; and that democracy in the Arab world will necessarily embolden Islamist forces (although the Muslim Brotherhood may get a foothold in the new Egyptian government, from all accounts the uprising was overtly and aggressively secular in nature).
2. The developments are a major setback for al Qaeda and other extremist groups. These groups have always gained support by presenting themselves as the only alternative to corrupt dictators. Nothing is more certain to delegitimize Islamist groups than the rise of true grassroots democratic movements in the Arab world.
3. The events are no less historic for U.S. foreign policy in the region than they are for the Egyptians. For decades the U.S. has played a duplicitous and contradictory role, promoting dictators and monarchs in exchange for stability. This devil’s bargain is no longer tenable, morally or operationally. That democracy has come to the Arab world against Mubarak, a stalwart U.S. ally, is powerful symbolically and substantively. How long can the U.S. continue to support the Jordanian monarch and the regressive, theocratic Saudi state?
4. All autocratic rulers in the region, and elsewhere in the world, should be quaking in their shoes. No regime is safe against the type of protests that transpired in Egypt. There is no doubt that majorities in countries such as Iran, Syria, and Burma do not support their regimes; it is likely only a matter of time before they rise up and overthrow them, now that they have a model to follow. This begs the question as to how the other authoritarian regimes will respond: will they try to defuse popular unrest by ceding more power and providing more freedom, or by cracking down to prevent democratic movements from gathering momentum?
5. The events in Egypt make me wonder whether the Palestinians would’ve been able to achieve statehood if they had engaged in the type of protests we just witnessed. One can’t help but think that this tactic would’ve produced much greater success than suicide bombings and continuous rocket attacks.
6. Are there links between the Iraq War and the Egyptian uprising? Proponents of the war argued that Iraq would be the first domino to fall in the Mideast as democracy spread. From all that I’ve heard and read, no one is seriously arguing that the events in Egypt were in any way inspired by events in Iraq; if anything, the Wikileaks cables documenting the cravenness of Middle Eastern and Arab leaders were a more proximate cause. I’m sure the Iraq War connection will be drawn, however, and I’m open to hearing the case.
Finally, I can’t help but be impressed by President Obama’s response to the situation. While it is true that he stayed a little behind the protestors, and only came out for full-fledged democracy later on, he was forced into a delicate balancing act. Mubarak was a U.S. ally for three decades, and throwing him under the bus at the first signs of protest would’ve comprised U.S. relations with the leaders of many other allies. In the end Obama came out looking strong and grounded, once again proving that he is a true leader.
It’s rare that the voices of reason win such an impressive victory, so let us all celebrate this momentous occasion—not just for the Egyptians, but for all peoples who seek freedom and democracy through peaceful means.
Jason Scorse