With a little over a week until the midterms, the only thing we can be sure of is that the Democrats are going to be net losers by a pretty big margin. It’s still possible, though unlikely, that the Democrats will retain control of the House, and almost certain that they will retain a reasonably comfortable majority in the Senate (53+). Since so much of this election depends on turnout—always hard to predict—we simply have to wait and see.
For progressives (and anyone else who cares about the public interest), election 2010 will likely put in office a crop of extremist rightwing candidates whose views range from bizarre to downright oppressive. However, not all is grim.
Here are some things to consider:
1. A good portion of the expected Democratic losses will come from the so-called “Blue Dogs” who rode the waves of 2006 and 2008 in districts that traditionally lean Republican. While these representatives are friendlier to progressive causes than their Republican counterparts, they have aided the GOP by helping block key aspects of the liberal agenda, e.g., a public option in the healthcare bill. With most of them gone, it will be easier for the Democratic caucus to maintain a unified progressive stance. This could help going into the election of 2012, and also over the next two years.
2. Many Tea Party candidates will be defeated, delivering a blow to the know-nothings in the Republican Party. It is possible that the Republicans will lose as many as 5 Senate seats that they could’ve easily won with reasonable center-right candidates. These losses will likely accelerate the intra-party warfare within the GOP. The adults know that the Palins, O’Donnells, and Angles are toxic to the Party’s long-term viability, but they don’t know how to stop them. When their candidacies result in losses, the adult voices are going to speak out. We’re going to get a preview of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination fight, and it won’t be pretty.
3. It is obvious that the extremists among the Republican candidates will never be able to deliver. Their actual positions are unpopular; the reasons they’re going to win seats are a weak economy and widespread anger over forces beyond people’s control. If they win the House, however, Republicans will have to govern—and it will quickly become clear that they have no real plan for job creation, deficit reduction, immigration reform, energy policy, or practically anything else. Any attempt to repeal healthcare reform will not only face an Obama veto; many of the bill’s provisions are very popular (when people cite the unpopularity of the bill overall, they forget that half of those who don’t like wish it were more progressive). The bottom line is that Republican policies and ideas are more unpopular now than they were a few years ago, and the GOP will soon find itself caught between a rock and a hard place: placate the base and alienate 70% of the public, or move to the center and face the ire of the Limbaugh-Tea Party crowd.
So not all is grim, even if the Democrats lose control of the House.
Politics is a strange game. I wish those who are ignorant and reactionary didn’t have so much sway in our system, but I am still all but certain that progressive policies and ideas will ultimately win. In 20 years we will have a solid universal healthcare system, gays will be able to marry, our immigration system will be much more humane, and we will have ushered in a green tech revolution.
Reactionary forces always stall progress and increase suffering along the way, but they also always lose in America, and this time won’t be any different. We have to be in it for the long haul.
Jason Scorse