With six weeks to go before the midterm elections, the key to avoiding a major defeat for Obama and the Democrats is to rally their base. High unemployment and a weak economy are the main reasons they’re in such bad shape; these macroeconomic factors largely determine electoral outcomes, despite all the theories put forth by pundits about particular policies or personalities. The additional element hurting Democrats this cycle is low enthusiasm among supporters, not the popularity of Republicans. If Obama and the Democrats can fire up a sizeable portion of the coalition that swept them to victory in 2008, they may be able to hold the Congress.
So what do Obama and the Democrats have planned?
1. The appointment of Elizabeth Warren to lead the Consumer Protection Agency
This position was announced Friday; while Warren’s position is ambiguous, she’s basically in charge and avoids a long and contentious confirmation battle. Warren is a progressive champion, and will likely be all over the airwaves in the coming weeks touting the new agency and its regulatory benefits for consumers. The regulations she’ll be overseeing are extremely popular, and the Republicans voted against them.
2. Repeal “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell”
As early as next Tuesday, the Democrats will bring to a vote the new defense authorization bill that includes an amendment repealing DADT. Republicans will have to decide whether to filibuster; if they do, their anti-gay bigotry will be holding up needed resources for the armed services. I predict that the DADT repeal will pass, handing a major progressive victory to Obama—one that activists have been waiting for since his election.
3. The DREAM Act
Another amendment to the defense bill, the DREAM Act will give college-age children of illegal immigrants, who are also illegal, the right to apply for citizenship if they attend college or serve in the armed forces. This has been a huge goal of immigrant rights supporters, and will provide a tangible victory to help make up for the failure of comprehensive immigration reform. I predict that this will pass as well, with the military in favor because it increases the pool of potential volunteers.
4. Tax cuts for the middle class
This is like a softball down the middle of the plate. Americans are heavily in favor of ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and keeping them for the middle class (remember, the wealthy also keep the cuts on the first $250,000 of income). Extending the middle class cuts and letting the high-end breaks expire has been one of Obama’s central promises; getting it enacted would restore some progressivity to the tax code and help the struggling middle class. The Republicans are complete hypocrites on the issue; it’s impossible to oppose increasing the deficit and simultaneously favor tax breaks for the rich, especially when the economic stimulus they provide is minimal. The GOP complains about spending for unemployment benefits and children’s healthcare, and then wants $700 billion for the ultra-rich? That’s a political gift that cries out to be exploited, and the Democrats have from now until Election Day.
All of the above are in addition to what has been two years of major legislative victories (for a good summary click here). Obama has not delivered on all of his promises and there is reason for both criticism and disappointment, but this has been the most progressive administration in 60 years. Any Democratic supporters who choose to sit it out on Nov. 2 are simply not thinking straight.
Jason Scorse