I don’t subscribe to the “things have to get worse before they get better” theory, but I’m starting to think it could happen this time around. But before I explain why a GOP wave in November might turn into a silver lining, let me first say that I think it’s premature to call the elections for Republicans.
The midterm season doesn’t really start until after Labor Day, and polls can swing hugely between now and Nov. 2. And while many Democrats are disillusioned (for a number of reasons, some sensible and some not), I can’t imagine that many will end up not voting given how much is at stake. Three words—“Speaker John Boehner”— should be enough to get even unhappy Democrats to the polls. And while the youth turnout might not be as high as in 2008, the Administration’s student loan reform provides a strong reason to vote. Loans are cheaper and grants bigger than ever before, all because of Obama’s efforts.
I also think the Republicans peaked too early, leaving a significant window of opportunity for Obama and the Democrats to drive the narrative leading up to the election. Obama is likely to appoint Elizabeth Warren, a liberal favorite, to head the new Consumer Protection Agency; it appears that the small business tax credit bill will pass (thanks to the defection of Ohio’s Republican Senator); Obama wants to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class and end them for the rich (a very popular position); and the controversy over the mosque near Ground Zero has given the president another opportunity to promote America’s best ideals in the face of rightwing fear-mongering.
But let us assume that the worst comes to pass: Republicans take control of the House and gain several seats in the Senate. Many Tea Party candidates will have won, and rightwing extremism will have been rewarded.
Governing, though, is a lot harder than stoking anger and taking extreme positions; the fact remains that the far right’s policies are deeply unpopular.
If Republicans try to repeal healthcare reform, or privatize Social Security, or extend tax cuts for the rich, Americans will quickly get buyer’s remorse. Republicans might also shut down the government, which would also be extremely unpopular. Lastly, of course, Obama holds the veto power over whatever might get to his desk. So if the Republicans do take control, it’s my prediction that it will virtually guarantee his reelection in 2012; voters will clearly see the GOP agenda, reject it, and hand Obama four more years.
America has major problems that need to be addressed—climate change, immigration, tax reform, and the long-term deficit. These require serious people making difficult choices, and today’s Republican Party is incapable of taking part. If government in Washington must grind to a standstill and extremist Republicans such as Joe Miller, Rand Paul, and Sharron Angle given a platform to espouse their lunacy in order to make finally people realize that the GOP is nothing more than a front group for corporate interests, then so be it.
If Democrats do manage to hold onto the House and the Senate, but with smaller majorities, the caucus that remains will likely be more progressive. It will embolden Democrats if they manage to hang on, encouraging them to fight harder and with a more unified voice for their legislative priorities—even if they’re ultimately thwarted by the obstructionist GOP.
So whatever happens in November, I’m still optimistic. The question is how much needless suffering we have to endure before our political system is again populated with rational actors committed to the public good.
Jason Scorse