Predicting election outcomes is tricky, but economic conditions are highly correlated with how citizens ultimately vote. The formula is simple: the better the economy, the better for the incumbents; the worse the economic conditions, the worse the party in power fares. (James Carville summed it all up with his much-quoted phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid!”)
Given today’s high unemployment and low growth, the Republican Party should pile up huge gains in November. And they probably will if Republican leaders could just learn to keep their mouths shut. But they apparently can’t, and what’s been coming out almost daily provides what hope there is for Democrats.
Over the last few weeks Republican Congressmen have basically stated that the GOP’s priorities include:
1. Screwing over the working poor and the middle class by refusing to extend unemployment benefits, all the while claiming that the unemployed are lazy and undeserving;
2. Standing up for Wall Street and big corporations, even to the point of calling for a one-year moratorium on regulations (forget about health, safety and the environment, who cares?);
3. Standing up for the rich at every opportunity;
4. Pretending to care about the deficit (when it’s about money for the unemployed), but saying at the same time that deficits don’t matter (when it’s about extending the Bush tax cuts for the rich).
I think it’s safe to say that if elections were determined by actual policy prescriptions, the GOP would fail miserably; only a minority of Americans, perhaps even a small minority, support these views. So, despite the bad economic times, it’s worth asking why so many Americans will pull the lever for a party whose priorities are this perverse.
Part of the answer is because there are people for whom facts simply don’t matter; their worldview is shaped by the ravings of Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and the other purveyors of misinformation who dominate Fox News and talk radio. These people can never be swayed by reason. Ironically, the current bad economic conditions (even though Obama inherited them) only reinforce their belief that all Democrats are bad.
The good news is that the people who make up this minority will be quickly shrinking as a proportion of the electorate over the coming decades. Many are older and will simply die off, and many others are from a white working class that is also shrinking. No doubt there are younger Americans who are just as ignorant as the old-guard extremist fringe, but polls indicate that most are significantly more tolerant than their elders and at least moderately amenable to rational arguments.
So, as infuriating as it to watch the know-nothings dominate so much of our political discourse, I believe that what we’re experiencing is the last gasp of this vocal and vitriolic demographic. Granted, this final outpouring from the right-wing, epitomized by the Tea Party “movement”, may last a good while—but in relatively short order, it will fade into the dustbin of history. Our stagnant economy has probably bottomed out, and their appeal will naturally decline as employment, the housing market, and other economic markers begin to improve.
I am not claiming that American political discourse will ever become a bastion of reason based on honest policy discussions. On the other hand, I do think that what we are now witnessing represents our political nadir—that things are as bad as they’re going to get. Demographic trends and the inevitable march of social progress will prove too powerful for the right wing to withstand, and it will fracture and crumble.
Here’s hoping that this occurs as soon as possible.
P.S. Seems like Frank Rich is on the same page as me today. Good stuff.
Jason Scorse