Humanity is at a fascinating crossroads. We have the technology and the means to create a sustainable development path for the world economy; the question is whether we can make the transition before catastrophic climate change becomes certain, before the oceans are depleted, and before our legacy becomes so toxic that we are destined for generations of increased cancer and eventual species collapse.
On the positive side, the major transformational technology of the 21st century—electric vehicles—is about to take off. The two impediments to the widespread adoption of this technology, the cost and storage potential of the batteries, have both been overcome. The Nissan Leaf set to come out at the end of this year will cost in the low to mid-20s (after rebates) and the battery can hold a charge of 100 miles. The cost per mile is about 1/5 that of gasoline, meaning that the average driver in the U.S. will save approximately $1,000 in gas costs per year (while drivers in Europe will save double that much). With the promise of never having to go to the gas station again and zero point-source emissions, these cars are the future. I predict that more than 50% of all new cars sold in the U.S. by 2020 will be all-electric and 80-90% of all cars on the road in the U.S. will be all-electric by 2030. We are on the cusp of an automotive revolution.
It’s true that electric cars can only be as clean as the fuel that generates the electricity. All the same, the fact the electric motors are so much more efficient than combustion engines means they’ll produce less CO2 and other pollutants than gasoline engines even when they burn dirty fuels. Since the U.S. will increasingly get more of its electricity from natural gas, wind, solar, and even nuclear, the efficiency gains will be tremendous (despite the role that coal will continue to play in our energy mix). Our dependence on foreign oil will soon be a thing of the past, and the petro dictators in Iran and Saudi Arabia will have to find other ways to fuel their economies.
It is doubtful that the efficiency gains from electric vehicles will be enough to achieve the cuts in greenhouse gases necessary to stave off the worst effects of climate change, but they will move us in the right direction. At the same time, legislation in the U.S. is leaning increasingly towards regulation of the utilities sector; this is a helpful development, since electricity is the single greatest contributor to global warming and will only grow in importance as electric vehicles replace the combustion engine.
Other major technological advances on the horizon—in artificial intelligence, stem cells, biotech, nanotech, and computing power—are sure to usher in a new era of productivity which will dwarf that of the modern era. The future will be truly bright if only we can hang on long enough.
There are powerful negative forces that could dampen or even negate any advances. There’s the clear potential of catastrophic climate change; the state of the oceans is extremely troubling, with major species facing extinction, entire ecosystems in decline, and the toxic load so great that the entire ocean food chain may be irreparably poisoned. Add in the rates of tropical deforestation and concomitant species decline, the proliferation of toxic chemicals in our agricultural food supply, and the widespread use of toxic industrial chemicals, and we are truly in a race against time to clean up our act.
Whether we ultimately succeed will largely depend on whether the developing countries can skip the most destructive aspects of industrial progress and implement green technologies to satisfy the demands of billions of new consumers. It is not whether the poor in China, India, Brazil, and Nigeria are going to get cars, refrigerators, and blue jeans, but whether their economies will be based on 20th century models or 21st century green technologies (and whether the emerging markets will mimic the animal product-heavy Western diet or stick with a predominantly plant-based diet; the evidence so far is not encouraging). This is the great economic and environmental challenge that we face.
Jason Scorse