On the policy front, the next few months promise to be the most consequential in at least a generation; it’s a political junky’s dream come true. The fate of three pieces of legislation hangs in the balance: healthcare reform, financial regulatory reform, and comprehensive climate change policy. It is hard to know which is most important, since they all have huge implications.
Politically, healthcare reform is probably the most important—because of the year that has already been invested, and because the Democratic base is so committed to its passage. Universal healthcare has been a goal of the Democratic Party for more than 50 years, and the activists who have worked so hard to get this close can almost taste it. Already defeat has been snatched from the jaws of victory, with the election of Scott Brown to Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat, but there’s been renewed Democratic momentum behind the scenes in the run-up to the upcoming televised healthcare summit.
The Democrats seem increasingly committed (including Senate Major Leader Harry Reid) to using the budget reconciliation option, which requires only 50 votes (plus VP Biden to break a tie), and therefore is immune from both a Republican filibuster and any “nays” from the Blue Dog Democrats. Ironically, a bill that passes using reconciliation might be more progressive since many concessions to the so-called centrists won’t have to be made. Equally ironic, an insurance company’s decision to raise premiums an average 39% for over 800,000 people in California helped galvanize President Obama and the Democrats to get the healthcare process moving again. Whether a final bill will actually make it to Obama’s desk is still unknown, but the odds are the best they’ve been since Brown’s victory.
The financial regulatory reform package may actually be the most important piece of domestic legislation: without new controls on banks, we could have a repeat of 2008 and another Great Depression. The fact that Republicans oppose almost all the provisions in the bill is simply astounding, and should be met with scorn and contempt. If necessary, as with healthcare, the bill should be passed through reconciliation; some provisions would require only an executive order. However the reform gets done, the details are too critical for half-measures. (It is interesting to note that former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, a staunch Republican, found the Congressional Republicans conspicuously uninformed when it came to the matters at hand; this may explain why their ideas are so bad).
An argument could be made that climate change legislation is in fact the most important of the three big issues; the future of human civilization may be at stake. With Obama’s recent $8.3 billion loan guarantee for two new nuclear plants in Georgia, it is clear that he is making overtures to Republicans (such as Senator Lindsey Graham) to get their agreement to a comprehensive bill that includes a cap and trade provision with serious emissions reductions. Whether any Republicans can be persuaded to vote for the bill (or even to vote against filibustering such a bill) is unclear, but I would say it’s unlikely. Of the three major pieces of legislation, this one in my view is least likely to pass.
The best hope is the CLEAR bill being pushed by Senators Susan Collins, a Republican, and Democrat Maria Cantwell. It’s a straightforward proposal that auctions off 100% of the allowances in the cap and trade system and refunds 75% of the money to consumers, so that 80% of Americans would suffer no net losses from higher energy prices. Their bill has gained a lot of attention recently in the environmental press, and it has a chance.
With the Republicans apparently poised to make significant gains in November, and with politicians loathe to make difficult decisions close to elections, the consensus is that votes on all three of these issues will take place by May, and that this may be their final chance at passage for years to come. Whether they pass or fail, these are going to be some of the landmark political moments of our lifetimes.
If ever there was a time to pay attention, to discuss the issues with friends, co-workers, and relatives, and most importantly, get involved by contacting your elected representatives, the time is now.
Jason Scorse