Since taking office Obama has (rightly) spent most of his energy on domestic matters, addressing the economic crisis and promoting major healthcare reform. His decision to close Guantanamo and ban torture, while substantive and welcomed, did not mark major breakthroughs. Even his decision to withdraw most combat troops from Iraq by the end of 2010 was largely a continuation of Bush policy.
But now we are beginning to witness a more concrete shift towards a new policy on a couple of crucial fronts that will likely define Obama’s presidency.
1. Afghanistan
Nothing hangs over the Obama Administration with more potential downside than the ongoing war in Afghanistan, which has claimed more American lives this year than in any other since we invaded in 2001. For years, Afghanistan was neglected because of commitments to Iraq and the policy was one of simply muddling through, rather than having a comprehensive strategy. Obama deserves credit for finally ordering a serious review of our strategy and already sending more troops to help stabilize the country.
But things are grim. The recent elections are widely believed to have been rigged by Karzai, even if he may have won in a fair vote. The Taliban continue to launch attacks, and control much of the country because of the corrupt and ineffective central government. Since the U.S. does not have sufficient forces to secure the country, we must rely on air power, which is still resulting in large numbers of civilian casualties. The bottom line is that the Afghan campaign is not going well, even though from all accounts it seems as if we have dealt serious blows to Al Qeada through our drone attacks.
More importantly, the question looms whether continuing the war is worth it because Al Qeada no longer has a strong presence in the country and the chance for real democracy seems like a far-off dream. The reason that many analysts think we must continue to fight and expend significant resources is because of Pakistan, which is where Al Qeada is based, and which is also increasingly unstable. If we were simply to get up and leave there is the fear that the entire region could become an Al Qeada/Taliban stronghold, with potentially huge destabilizing effects and the establishment of even more training camps from which to plot against U.S. interests.
I don’t know enough about the region or the details (most of which are probably classified) to make any final judgments, but from what Obama has been signaling it appears that he is convinced that it is too soon to begin to exit and that the U.S. still has serious security interests that demand significant military commitments. While many fear that Obama is haunted by the fear of not wanting to appear weak, since he labeled the Afghan War the “good war” (and Iraq “the bad”), I don’t think this is the case. If and when he believes it is not in our interests to continue I think he will have the determination to begin to wind that war down.
2. Russia and Iran
The reason these two countries are linked is because in order to apply serious economic pressure on Iran we need the cooperation of the Russians. And even if not an explicit “quid pro quo”, there is no doubt that Obama’s decision to reconfigure missile defense in Europe such that interceptors will not be in Poland or the Czech Republic was meant as an overture to the Russians. Immediately after, President Medvedev signaled that he might be willing to support tougher sanctions against the Iranians.
With Friday’s surprise announcement that Iran has been building a secret nuclear reactor and Obama’s demands that inspectors be allowed in immediately, the stakes are getting high. Already the Iranian regime has been delegitimized in the eyes of the world because of its sham election and subsequent crackdowns, and it appears that Russia is becoming increasingly impatient with the regime.
Even with the recent progress, if Iran really wants a nuclear weapon it may be next to impossible to stop them. But there are other ways to deal with them (to be discussed in a later piece), and it is not clear that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose any significant new threat to the world.
Obama promised a new foreign policy and we are finally beginning to see hints of what this will look like. There is no doubt that he is extremely well respected on the world stage and that world opinion is more favorable to U.S. interests than it has been in many years. But whether this can translate into tangible benefits for U.S. interests and progress on some of the world’s most intractable problems remains to be seen. Stay tuned.
Jason Scorse