The presidential campaign officially kicks off tomorrow with the start of the Democratic Convention in Denver, Colorado (a great venue since Colorado is a swing state in 2008). The convention will culminate Thursday night with Barack Obama’s acceptance speech before an audience of 70,000+ on the 40th anniversary of Dr. King’s “I have a dream” speech.
Obama has three primary goals:
1. To unify the party
There are still grumblings from Hillary supporters who can’t get over the fact that she lost. In an overture to them, Obama has agreed to let her name be placed in nomination and receive a roll call vote. All indications are that Hillary is doing the right thing; she will urge her supporters to vote for Barack in the final vote, and will deliver a gracious speech asking them to do likewise in November. I think Obama got it right in allowing the roll call vote and giving both Hillary and Bill prime speaking slots. He’s going to need their all-out support (especially among core white working-class voters in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the election may once again be decided, and where currently an uncomfortably large percentage of Democrats are saying they will vote for McCain).
2. To counter claims of his “otherness”
The Republicans and the McCain camp have been hitting Obama hard on charges of elitism and aloofness, while none-too-subtly trying to paint him as somehow foreign or un-American. So one of the main focuses in Denver will be to showcase Obama as prototypically American, and to surround him with “regular” Americans from all walks of life. Since large segments of the electorate will be getting their first extended look at Obama, this portrayal will hopefully go a long way toward making them comfortable with the notion of a President Obama.
On a side note, much has been made of the forum with pastor Rick Warren last weekend. Many believe McCain got the upper hand with answers which were firmer and more direct, while Obama’s were more “nuanced.” While this assessment may be accurate, I think commentators missed the point of what Obama wanted to achieve at the forum. His main goal was to make the largely Republican evangelical base comfortable with him, which is no small feat for a liberal Democrat; I believe he achieved this. Look for a more forceful and hard-hitting Obama when he faces off with McCain in the debates this fall.
3. To contrast his agenda with McCain’s
This should be the easiest objective to achieve, and ultimately the most important. McCain has no choice but to run on his image; if the election is based on issues, he loses by a landslide. The public doesn’t want a more belligerent foreign policy, more tax cuts for the rich, privatized Social Security, or an end to legalized abortion, all of which McCain supports.
I have one criticism of the Obama campaign so far: it hasn’t hit McCain hard enough, hasn’t driven home the message that what he wants for America is more of Bush’s policies and even worse (although this is quickly changing). Obama needs to couple this with specifics about how he’s different; he has to deliver them in simple sound bites that voters can easily understand and relate to. Some examples: McCain: more tax cuts for the rich; Obama, tax cuts for the middle class. McCain: the government controls a woman’s body; Obama: a woman controls her own body. McCain: trillions for more wars; Obama: trillions to rebuild America.
This election is Obama’s to lose. If the Obama camp plays its cards right, it will be a referendum on Republican rule. With more than 80% of Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track, the outcome shouldn’t be close. Because of Obama’s relative inexperience, McCain’s image and the racism that lingers in America, the election could be closer than it otherwise would be; nevertheless, Obama should win if he executes his game plan. Nothing so far leads me to believe that he and his campaign won’t deliver; they are, if nothing else, an extremely disciplined machine.
And with Joe Biden as VP, and Obama’s foreign policy credentials now solid, he can focus the convention on all of the above.
P.S. Great article on Obama's economic plan in the NYT; bottom line-Obama has a detailed and thoughtful plan while McCain's economic policy is largely tax cuts for the rich and corporate giveaways.
P.P.S. I think still Mark Warner would’ve been the best Democratic candidate to run against any Republican nominee. We would be looking at a true 1980-style blowout if he were the nominee. Warner was poised to run, dropped out, and now will almost certainly be elected a U.S. senator in Virginia; he also just happens to be giving the keynote speech in Denver. Whatever led him to eschew a national run this time around, it looks like he still has presidential aspirations.
Jason Scorse